What is Overvalue in EV Betting? Everything You Need to Know in 2025 3h5s5e

What is overvalue? A question often asked by those new to EV betting. Well, overvalue occurs when a sportsbook is offering odds that exceed the implied probability of an outcome, exactly the type of bets you need to place. 6w1ak

Finding overvalue bets gives you an edge over the sportsbooks, but first you need to calculate each set of odds to find it. To do this you use implied probability and real probability to calculate the overvalue before placing any bets. In this guide, we will highlight the full process to help you on your way.

Pros and Cons of overvalue 4mrz

Getting Started: What is Overvalue? 5i6y55

A true understanding of EV betting is a surefire way to create the most profitable betting strategies in June. EV betting can be used as a standalone strategy, or you can use it alongside other betting strategies, including bankroll management and hedging. Of course, you can also use it when determining overvalue.

When we consider EV betting, we are constantly on the lookout for discrepancies between the base odds offered by sportsbooks. We will then use a tried and tested formula:

• (winning implied probability % * profit if bet won) – (Losing implied probability % * stake)

Calculating in this way allows us to confirm the expected value (EV) of the best odds available.

If the result is a positive EV, we would presume that consistently placing bets at those odds over a prolonged period of time will result in a number of winning bets. Conversely, a negative EV would be more likely to result in a consistent stream of losses. So, where does overvalue come into play?

The overvalue of a certain set of odds refers to the difference between the implied probability and the “true” probability of a wager winning. The higher the percentage, the higher a set of odds have been overvalued. As you will soon see, this can have quite an impact on the expected value, showcasing odds that actually have less overall value to you.

This might occur when a certain buzz surrounds a specific team or player, and an influx of wagers has been placed on a specific sports betting market. For example, you may find that McCaffrey coming back from injury has boosted the 49er's odds of winning the Super Bowl. However, based on the 49er’s current form, this doesn’t look too likely.

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How do you calculate Overvalue? l5ge

Before you can calculate overvalue, you need to understand how to calculate implied probability. You can use these formulas to get started.

• For positive odds: Probability = 100 / (odds + 100)
• For negative odds: Probability = -odds / (-odds + 100)

From there, you’ll need to consider the expected value or “true” probability of the outcome. You can either work this out for yourself or make use of the tools and expertise of the gurus over at PromoGuy+.

Once you have your true probability and implied probability, you’ll need to one away from the other to leave you with the overvalue percentage. You can then use this value to determine whether a specific betting opportunity is worthwhile.

• Overvalue % = (implied probability) - (true probability)

Now you can view the size of the discrepancy directly, and also make use of the EV betting formula to confirm whether it’s a negative or a positive EV betting opportunity.

What does overvalue look like in the real world? 1j2b6m

In the sports betting world, overvalue relies on you finding odds that the sportsbooks have effectively mispriced on a certain market. You then need to calculate the implied and real probability before determining the overvalue percentage.

Although we’ve discussed the process of calculating overvalue already in this guide, this table offers you an exaggerated real-world example.

As you can see, Bet365, Caesars, and Betrivers have odds set at +120. This leads to an overvalue of 5.45%. As this is considered overvalued, it would not be a good idea to take their odds, when compared to the +180 odds set by BetMGM. In this instance, the odds are considered undervalued by -4.29%.

Comparison: What is considered good and bad overvalue? 734b5b

Taking the above examples into , let us break down good and bad overvalue and EV betting principles. Just bear in mind that the usual formula for EV betting will be changed from implied probability to true probability to for the overvalued odds.

Good Value: A $100 bet at BetMGM with odds at +180 5s1h20

Overvalue % = (implied probability) - (true probability)

Overvalue % = (35.71%) - (40%) = -4.29%

True probability EV betting = (Probability % * profit if bet won) – (Losing probability % * stake)

True probability EV betting = (40% * 180) – (60% * 100) = +12

This means that you would expect to win $12.

Bad Value: A $100 bet at Betrivers with odds at +120 484e2t

Overvalue % = (implied probability) - (true probability)

Overvalue % = (45%) - (40%) = 5%

True probability EV betting = (Probability % * profit if bet won) – (Losing probability % * stake)

True probability EV betting = (40% * 120) – (60% * 100) = -12

This means that you could lose $12.

Overvalue checklist: Things to consider before placing your bets 381f4c

Obviously, you’ll need to be armed with the above formulas, an understanding of the sports you’re betting on, and potentially a little help from the PromoGuy+ team to get up and running. However, it also pays to have these tick boxes covered.

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Hopefully, we have helped to break down a pretty complex topic into manageable chunks for you. Now, you can use your newfound knowledge to make the most of odds discrepancies when they come up. It’s also worth ing that overvalue predominantly occurs after breaking news or incidents occur, leading to an influx in wagers being placed on a specific betting market.

Such events cause market movement and can send the odds in a particular direction. But now you know how to find out the implied probability and compare it with the true probability to establish the overvalue percentage in each case. Couple this with the EV betting formula, and you’ll be able to make informed betting choices. Alternatively, you can always get in with the PromoGuy+ team to take all of the hard work out of it.

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What Is overvalue FAQ 3h2c1t